Politics
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 2026 88.3%
September 30, 2026 78.5%
August 31, 2026 58.5%
July 31, 2026 18.5%
No price history yet
No price history yet.
$8.05M Vol.
Trading for this event closes at this date and time. New orders are not accepted after that.
This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.
- Resolver: official source.
- Deadline: closing date in UTC.
- Disputed outcomes: handled by moderators within 48 hours.
24h volume$24K
Liquidity$222K
Outcomes16
Frequently Asked Questions
"Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?" is a prediction market on Polypred with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 88%, followed by "September 30, 2026" at 79%. Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 88¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?" has generated $8.05M in total trading volume since the market launched on May 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polypred community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?", browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade". If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?" is "December 31, 2026" at 88%, meaning the market assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30, 2026" at 79%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?". The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
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